Joe Biden has a big lead over President Donald Trump, the August IBD/TIPP Poll showed. The other top three Democratic presidential contenders enjoyed smaller 2020 election leads over the GOP incumbent. Meanwhile, Trump’s job approval fell to a six-month-low 40% in August.
The former vice president leads the Democratic field with 30% support. Biden is followed by Elizabeth Warren at 17%, Bernie Sanders at 12% and Kamala Harris at 11%.
Each of those candidates had an edge over Trump, but only Biden garnered an outright majority. Biden led Trump by a comfortable 54%-41% among registered voters. Among independents, Biden led Trump 59%-35%. The other matchups were closer. Among all registered voters, Sanders led 50%-45%, Warren 49%-45%, and Harris 47%-45%.
The IBD/TIPP Poll conducted from July 25 through Aug. 1 reflects 902 responses and has a 3.3% margin of error. The election polling reflects a subset of 856 registered voters.
Trump Job Approval Slumps, Despite Dow Jones Record
Trump’s job approval fell to 40% vs. 43% in the IBD/TIPP Poll at the start of July. That’s the lowest Trump job approval since February.
Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index fell 4.5 points to 42.7, the lowest since February. The Presidential Leadership Index is a composite of three subindexes measuring the president’s favorability, job approval and evaluations of leadership strength. Since Trump took office, the index has risen as high as 49.2, during his first month in office. Trump’s low came in August 2017, when it fell to 35.9.
Trump’s bad month came despite some generally positive news. His summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of June (though after the July IBD/TIPP polling period) put the China trade war on hold. Wall Street celebrated with a solid month for the stock market. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite all hit record highs and held near those peaks through most of the polling period.
Trump followed up his success at the G-20 meeting in Japan with a walk into the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea to shake hands with Kim Jong Un.
The June jobs report showed that the U.S. economy added 224,000 new jobs in the month, and layoffs have been sparse.
Trump called off the China trade-war cease-fire on Aug. 1, imposing new tariffs that have sent the stock market reeling. Yet that didn’t happen until the afternoon of the eighth and final day of polling, likely too late to make much difference.
If that’s the case, then what accounts for Trump’s slump? He may have seen something of a backlash from his attacks on minority Democratic members of Congress that dominated news coverage — at least until the weekend’s mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio.
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Author: JED GRAHAM